Shifting trade flows

T

he map of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shifting. For decades, Australia—and earlier, Southeast Asia’s own producers such as Indonesia and Malaysia—supplied most of the seaborne cargoes that fueled Asia’s gas demand. Now, new volumes from Qatar’s North Field expansion and U.S. export terminals are coming online, while Southeast Asian demand is growing unevenly but steadily, altering the balance. The region is evolving from a peripheral participant in the LNG market to one of its emerging strategic centers.

Demand, infrastructure, and strategy in Southeast Asia 

Southeast Asia remains one of the world’s most dynamic regions for energy demand growth. Analysts expect Asia to drive the majority of global LNG demand expansion through mid-century, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key contributor. According to Wood Mackenzie, Asian LNG demand is projected to rise from roughly 270 bcm in 2024 to around 510 bcm by 2050, with Southeast Asia accounting for a substantial share of that increase.
 

Regional demand growth, however, remains uneven and volatile. Thailand’s LNG imports fell by roughly 15% year-on-year in early 2025, reflecting high prices and deliberate demand management. The Philippines, by contrast, is entering a rapid ramp-up phase as production from the Malampaya field declines, while Vietnam’s expansion remains delayed but ambitious. Across the region, governments are attempting to strike a careful balance—securing reliable baseload supply, containing price volatility, and ensuring that infrastructure development keeps pace with actual demand. All of this is unfolding amid a backdrop of heightened global geopolitical uncertainty.
 

These dynamics are fueling renewed interest in long-term LNG contracts, even as spot cargoes remain essential for flexibility. Thailand, with regasification capacity of about 26 bcm per year—among the largest in Asia—is expanding its facilities to hedge against declining pipeline imports. Singapore’s SLNG terminal, with a capacity of 12–15 bcm per year and four storage tanks, has positioned itself as a prospective regional hub. Vietnam plans as many as 14 regasification terminals totaling up to 26 bcm per year, though financing and policy uncertainty continue to slow progress.
 

The Philippines, meanwhile, now operates two terminals commissioned in 2023 and imported roughly 1.8 bcm of LNG in 2024 (about 19 spot cargoes). Imports are projected to grow by more than 50 percent in 2025 as new gas-to-power plants begin operation. Flexibility has become the new premium: utilities are seeking terminals capable of managing both long-term contract volumes and opportunistic spot purchases, while ensuring steady supply to increasingly constrained power grids.

The suppliers: Qatar, Australia, and the U.S.

Qatar is undertaking the largest LNG capacity expansion in history. The first phase of its North Field expansion, scheduled for completion in mid-2026, will boost output from roughly 105 bcm per year in 2024 to around 150 bcm per year. A second phase, North Field West, is set to lift capacity further to about 193 bcm per year by 2030. Qatar already has approximately 105 bcm per year committed under long-term contracts—many extending well into the 2030s—requiring Doha to carefully balance its existing obligations with the need to secure new buyers for its expanded production.
 

Australia remains a cornerstone LNG supplier, particularly for East Asian markets. In 2024, it exported roughly 110 bcm of LNG—about 20 percent of global supply. However, Australian producers are under increasing strain from a combination of factors: heightened spot-market exposure, recurring industrial disputes, aging gas fields, and regulatory measures such as the Domestic Gas Security Mechanism. Analysts caution that by 2030, Australia could face overcapacity and shrinking margins, even with its geographic advantage of proximity to Asian buyers. Ongoing reliability risks—from labor strikes, production outages, and government-imposed price caps—are further undermining its competitiveness.

The United States is the wildcard in global LNG markets, particularly amid ongoing policy volatility. In 2025 alone, about 67 bcm per year of new liquefaction capacity is expected to come online globally, with the U.S. accounting for roughly 62 percent of that increase. Between 2025 and 2030, nearly 300 bcm per year of additional capacity is slated for commissioning worldwide, much of it tied to U.S. projects that have already reached final investment decision.
 

Although long voyage times and congestion in the Panama Canal make U.S. cargoes less competitive in Southeast Asia, portfolio traders are increasingly blending them into regional supply chains—arbitraging between Gulf and Pacific flows. Together, Qatar, Australia, and the United States now provide nearly 60 percent of global LNG supply, and Southeast Asia has become the arena where their competition is most direct.

Shifting contract dynamics

The extreme volatility of 2022–2025—when spot LNG prices surged and importers from Manila to Bangkok were forced into emergency measures—has pushed buyers back toward long-term security. In 2024 alone, over 85 bcm per year of new long-term LNG contracts were signed globally, much of them with Gulf exporters. These newer contracts increasingly feature flexible terms, including destination rights, swing volume provisions, hybrid indexation linked to both JKM and Henry Hub, and, in some cases, carbon-intensity tracking to meet evolving decarbonization standards.
 

For Southeast Asian buyers—ranging from utilities and power producers to state energy agencies—the ideal arrangement is stability with flexibility. Contracts that provide price certainty while allowing for volume adjustments and resale rights are especially valued. This dynamic favors suppliers such as Qatar and ADNOC, which can draw on sovereign balance sheets and offer reliability premiums that appeal to risk-averse buyers.

Southeast Asia’s balancing acts

Thailand exemplifies the balancing act facing many Southeast Asian LNG buyers. With regasification capacity of about 26 bcm per year, it is diversifying away from declining Myanmar pipeline imports and shrinking domestic production. New supply deals with Oman LNG and other Gulf exporters underscore its strategy of achieving security through portfolio diversification.
 

The Philippines, by contrast, imported 1.8 bcm in 2024 but is poised for rapid growth in 2025 as LNG-to-power integration reshapes its baseload generation mix—making Manila a textbook example of LNG’s role as a bridge fuel in emerging economies. Vietnam is targeting over 26 bcm per year of regasification capacity if all planned projects advance, with the goal of displacing coal in its power sector, though progress depends heavily on regulatory clarity and financing availability.
 

Singapore, while a small consumer, is expanding capacity to about 12–15 bcm per year and positioning itself as a trading and transshipment hub. Its SLiNG price index remains in the early stages but could evolve into a regional benchmark if trading liquidity grows—helping Singapore realize its long-standing ambition to become Asia’s premier international gas hub.

Competitive dynamics through 2030

Southeast Asia’s evolving relationship with Qatar, Australia, and the United States will be a key factor shaping global LNG dynamics in the coming years. Australia continues to benefit from geographic proximity and long-standing commercial ties, but Qatar’s expansion is unmatched in scale—its planned 193 bcm per year of capacity by 2030 will far exceed Australia’s steady 110 bcm. The United States, meanwhile, will inject vast new flexible volumes into the market, intensifying global price competition even if much of its supply does not flow directly to ASEAN buyers.

ADNOC adds another Gulf dimension with its planned 13 bcm per year Ruwais LNG terminal, scheduled for completion by 2028. The project is marketed as “low-carbon LNG,” featuring electric-drive compressors and carbon capture and storage (CCS) integration. Whether Southeast Asian buyers will be willing to pay a premium for lower-carbon LNG remains uncertain, but Gulf suppliers are clearly positioning themselves to meet tightening ESG standards imposed by global financiers and regulators.

Price volatility and the resilience premium

The IEA’s 2025 Gas Market Report forecasts global gas demand growth of just 1.3% for the year, yet even small shifts in demand earlier in the decade produced sharp price volatility. Southeast Asian governments drew hard lessons from the European energy crisis—chief among them that heavy reliance on spot markets carries major political risks. The response has been a clear pivot back toward long-term contracts and a growing readiness to pay a “resilience premium” to suppliers perceived as stable and reliable.
 

This “resilience premium” works in Qatar’s favor, supported by state backing, vast reserves, and a reputation for reliable delivery. Australia, by contrast, suffers from recurring industrial disputes and regulatory uncertainty that erode buyer confidence. The United States offers competitively priced gas, but its distance from Asia and logistical bottlenecks—such as Panama Canal congestion—limit its attractiveness for ASEAN utilities.

Geopolitics and alignments

Energy has always carried a geopolitical dimension. Southeast Asia’s expanding LNG relationships with Qatar and ADNOC are deepening Gulf–ASEAN ties that once revolved primarily around crude oil. Gulf sovereign wealth funds are now increasingly active investors in Southeast Asian energy and infrastructure projects, strengthening these connections further. Australia, meanwhile, remains a politically aligned and commercially trusted partner, but its rising costs and regulatory uncertainty are gradually eroding its competitive leverage.
 

ASEAN’s broader integration goals—such as the ASEAN Power Grid and the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline—continue to advance slowly. As a result, LNG trade remains the most concrete and functional form of regional energy interconnection. Within this framework, Singapore will maintain an outsized role as the hub that balances and redistributes these flows across the region.

A market in motion

Southeast Asia is no longer a marginal LNG buyer—it is emerging as the swing arena of global LNG trade, where Qatar’s expansion, Australia’s incumbency, and the U.S. supply surge converge. For ASEAN buyers, this new landscape brings greater choice but also greater complexity, requiring a constant balance among security, cost, flexibility, and emissions.
 

For suppliers, it means competing for market share in a region marked by volatile demand, fragile infrastructure, and growing geopolitical significance. If Europe was the crucible of LNG disruption in the 2020s, Southeast Asia may well be the region that defines the new equilibrium of global LNG trade in the 2030s.