The global energy system is changing fast. Rising supply security risks, an evolving energy map, and rapid technology adoption are creating new challenges. The latest iea scenarios provide decisionmakers with tools to understand possible pathways and the consequences of their strategic choices
The global energy system is changing fast. Rising supply security risks, an evolving energy map, and rapid technology adoption are creating new challenges. The latest iea scenarios provide decisionmakers with tools to understand possible pathways and the consequences of their strategic choices
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he global energy landscape is in flux. Energy security risks are rising, as highlighted by the latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) from the International Energy Agency (IEA), with energy at the heart of many of today’s geopolitical tensions. Alongside traditional risks to fuel supply come emerging vulnerabilities – from tighter controls on critical minerals to growing risks to electricity supply. The contours of the world’s energy system are evolving too, including shifts in the geography of global energy demand. Electricity is increasingly the backbone of modern economies, bringing new opportunities and new challenges. Renewables continue to outpace other energy sources, led by the rapid growth of solar photovoltaics (PV). Other fuels may face divergent futures: fast-growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) is re-shaping the global gas trade, while electric vehicle (EV) deployment will determine the outlook for road oil use, the largest oil consuming sector. And, even as climate risks intensify, momentum behind emission reduction efforts has faltered.
To help navigate this shifting, uncertain outlook, the latest WEO presents an updated set of scenarios—not forecasts—based on the latest data on technologies, policies, and markets. The Current Policies Scenario (CPS) reflects only policies already in place, with a cautious view on the pace of new energy technology deployment. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) considers a broader range of policies, including those put forward but not yet adopted, alongside a faster pace of technology adoption. An updated Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) maps a pathway to reduce global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050.
In all scenarios, the world’s thirst for energy grows
As economies expand and populations and incomes grow, the need for energy services increases, with rising demand for mobility, heating, cooling and other uses. But the geography of that demand is evolving. While China contributed more than half of global energy demand growth since 2000, a larger share of future increases will come from India and Southeast Asia, joined by other emerging economies in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.
Central to the outlook is rising electrification. Demand for electricity grows much faster than overall energy use in all WEO scenarios, rising by around 40 percent to 2035 in both the CPS and the STEPS, and even faster in the NZE Scenario. Appliances and air conditioners drive this growth, along with advanced manufacturing, electric mobility, data centres, and electrified heating. Rising incomes and temperatures drive surging air conditioning demand, putting strain on grids, with growth led by expanding needs in emerging economies such as India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Electricity networks are also being stretched by fast-growing demand from data centres for artificial intelligence, particularly in tightly concentrated clusters in the US. Worldwide investment in data centres will overtake spending on global oil supply to reach USD 580 billion in 2025.
Not all regions are sharing in these advances. Around 730 million people still lack access to electricity, while nearly 2 billion rely on polluting cooking methods. Parts of Asia have seen rapid progress in access, but the pace elsewhere has lagged, most notably in sub-Saharan Africa. The latest WEO introduces a new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS), which provides a data-driven roadmap to achieve universal access to electricity by 2035 and clean cooking by 2040.
Renewables have been the fastest growing energy source this century, in 2024 setting new deployment records for the 23rd year running. This trend continues with renewables growing faster than any other major energy source across all WEO scenarios. Renewables still meet the largest share of total energy demand growth in the CPS, despite some headwinds. Although policy changes have slowed the pace of uptake in the United States, renewables continue their rapid expansion globally in the STEPS.
Solar PV is central to this growth, remaining the fastest growing electricity source in the world in all scenarios. Supporting this, most energy consumption growth by 2035 occurs in regions with high solar potential. Wind, hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal and other technologies are also set to grow. Across scenarios, nuclear energy sees a revival in investment in both traditional large-scale plants and new designs, including small modular reactors.
As the world’s energy landscape changes, energy security challenges are evolving too. The IEA has long played a central role in global energy security efforts, helping to anticipate, avoid and manage energy disruptions. Its initial focus on oil has progressively expanded to include, first, natural gas and, more recently, a wider range of critical energy-related risks. In 2025, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties about global trade have kept commodity markets on edge.
Newer energy security concerns are rising, most notably with acute vulnerabilities in critical mineral supplies. The key risk is market concentration: one country, China, holds a 70 percent market share, on average, in 19 of 20 strategic minerals. Over half of these minerals currently face export controls, and risks have been underscored by China’s latest restrictions on rare earth elements and battery components and technologies. Geographical concentration, which magnifies exposure to geopolitical shocks, is only projected to decline slowly, so determined action is required to enhance preparedness and diversify supply chains. Another growing priority is ensuring the security of supplies of electricity, central to all modern economies. This includes concerns over weather-related risks, cyberattacks and other activity targeting electricity infrastructure. Building new, flexible grids and storage is essential for electricity security, but current progress is often slow.
Growing LNG capacity is already reshaping global gas flows, and could put downward pressure on prices. LNG overtook large-scale pipelines in 2023 as the leading way of trading gas over long distances. The rise of LNG is upending established trade patterns, opening new markets, and helping bolster energy security.
By 2030, 300 billion cubic metres of new export capacity is expected to come onstream—led by rapid expansion in the United States. This growth will increase global LNG supply by 50 percent by the end of the decade. Natural gas demand has been revised up in the STEPS, but questions remain about where new LNG will go. Europe and China will absorb some, with further volumes flowing to South and Southeast Asia and elsewhere. However, in the STEPS, markets are oversupplied in 2030, potentially creating risks for exporters. In the CPS, a slower transition pace absorbs this surplus.
Growing LNG capacity is reshaping global gas flows and could put downward pressure on prices
Oil markets may soon be approaching a crossroads, as EV adoption increasingly shapes the demand outlook. Sales of EVs are expected to surpass 25 percent of new car sales globally in 2025. China is by far the largest market, with EVs set to make up around 60 percent of total car sales this year. In the STEPS, while EV growth projections in advanced economies have been revised down, notably in the United States, the share of EVs in new car sales exceeds 50 percent globally by 2035, and oil demand levels off around 2030. In the CPS, slower EV uptake is mostly limited to China and Europe, supporting rising oil demand out to 2050. The NZE Scenario sees rapid electrification drive steep declines in oil use.
Oil markets look well-supplied today, thanks to five Western Hemisphere producers—the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina—and currently muted demand growth. This could change, especially in the CPS where underlying declines at existing fields and continued consumption growth result in a need for some 25 million barrels per day of new supply by 2035.
Meanwhile, the map of global oil supply will keep evolving. The Middle East—still the leading net exporter of oil—sees its share of global production rise steadily to 2050 in all scenarios.
The world’s energy landscape—shaped by heightened geopolitical rivalries and accelerating technological change—is growing more complex and fragmented. Even as fractures in the international system widen and uncertainties over the outlook for trade deepen, international energy flows are growing more essential. Abundant supplies of oil, solar panels, batteries, and soon LNG add to incentives for producers to seek international markets. At the same time, countries are reaching for different levers to ensure energy security and affordability. Some, including many fuel-importing countries, lean towards renewables and efficiency; others focus more on traditional fuels.
2024 was the hottest year on record, and global temperatures could rise by almost 3 °C in 2100 in the CPS, and 2.5 °C in the STEPS. Even in the NZE Scenario, 1.5 °C looks likely to be surpassed by 2030, lasting for several decades, making it essential for new energy infrastructure projects to build in resilience. Despite rising climate hazards, momentum behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions has waned. Yet avoiding the worst risks from climate change remains possible: key technologies have strong momentum, and the options to cut emissions are well known.
As they seek to navigate this changing landscape, policy makers need to approach urgent energy security challenges with the same spirit and focus that governments showed when they created the IEA after the 1973 oil shock. Their responses must consider synergies and trade-offs with other policy goals, on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change.
For policy-makers seeking to strike the right balance, the WEO scenarios cannot provide all the answers. But they can illuminate choices—and their consequences—on the road ahead.