T

he US presidential election saw the landslide victory of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. Trump returns to the White House after the 2016 success and the following defeat with Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. Trump is the second President in US history to be elected to a second non-consecutive term (since Grover Cleveland back in late 1800s). And it is the second time (out of two) that a female candidate is defeated (both by Trump). Approx. 150 million of the eligible voters voted (with 87% of the electoral precincts reporting the results at the moment; 160 million in 2020), with a turnout of around 62% (65% in 2020). Trump’s resounding victory ends a volatile White House race that saw the Republican candidate two assassination attempts, a criminal conviction, and the eleventh-hour change of his Democratic opponent (the US vice President Kamala Harris) after President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election bid. Polls predicted the two candidates on the edge, in what was shaping up to be a battle to the last vote that could have lasted for days. Instead, Trump got a clear victory, sanctioned not only by the popular vote (76,1 million, so far, with the counting in the final stages; it was since 2004, with G.W. Bush, that a Republican President didn’t win the popular vote) but also by success in the seven “swing states” identified on the eve of the election as decisive. Indeed, he made decisive inroads in both the so-called “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) and the “sun belt” states (Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia). Vice President Harris (73,1 million votes, so far) conceded the presidential election but promised to keep fighting for democracy and the rule of law and urged supporters to never give up. The Democratic Party performance is far from the 81.3 million record votes obtained by Biden in 2020 (even after securing the missing votes from California, that still only reported 59% of the electoral preferences).

 

There are many possible reasons for the election’s  outcome: blame the Biden Administration and/or the late change in Harris's candidacy (or her not enough distancing from the Biden); inflation or immigration’s  greater impact on voters; several analysts point out that Trump's victory appealed mostly to frustrations and fears related to the loss of purchasing power and illegal immigration, coupled with a not drastic but still perceptible shift towards the GOP by  minorities.

 

Hispanic groups and African male still are mostly Dem-aligned, but in 2024 elections about 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris (down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden four years ago). And despite slightly more than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, it was down from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Harris’ campaign was strongly focused on exploiting a large gender gap in the electorate, with the hope that legions of women would strongly and unconditionally support the Democratic struggle to ensure abortion rights. However, reportedly only 54% of female voters baked the Dem. In addition, opposition to Harris came from Arab-American voters, due to the Biden administration’s decision to support, arm and finance Israel’s occupation of Gaza.

 

A Red Congress

                                  

Republicans also took control of the Senate and retained the House of Representatives, handing Trump control of the Congress and freedom to pursue his “America First” agenda in the world’s largest economy. Winning the Senate will also facilitate Trump's cabinet and judicial appointments.

 

Next steps will see the 538 members of the Electoral College meeting on Dec. 17 to cast their votes, which will then be sanctioned by Congress during its session on January 6, 2025. Trump, in the Electoral College, has a wide lead (312) over Harris (226). At 78, Trump will in January be the oldest US President to be sworn into office. His running mate, 40-year-old Ohio senator JD Vance, will be one of the country’s youngest ever vice-presidents.

 

Trump’s compass

 

By winning the presidency and a the Republican congressional majority, Trump will likely be able to move forward on a substantive trade, immigration, and tax agenda. On tax policy, Trump initially advocated simply extending his 2017 tax cuts, when he made substantial changes to the rates and bases of both the individual and corporate income taxes, most prominently cutting the maximum corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%. Trump has since expanded his calls for tax relief to include the ending of taxes on tipping, social security benefits and overtime payments and the ending of the cap for the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Trump also stated his intention to lower corporate taxes to 15%. To pay for these cuts, the US would raise tariffs to include a 10%-20% global tariff and a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports. Whether Trump will increase tariffs to this level or is only using these statements as negotiating levers remains debatable. Nonetheless, Trump’s statements point out a move toward greater protectionism encouraging firms to relocate manufacturing to the US. For what concerns trade policy, Trump argues that the global trading system is rigged against US interests and responsible for large trade deficits, declining US manufacturing, and the offshoring of American jobs. The Republican platform promises to return the United States to the “manufacturing superpower of the world” through “rebalancing trade” towards domestic production.

As for sanctions policy, Trump administration will likely pursue a more unilateral and transactional approach than the current one, focusing more on economic targets and less on political values. Trump could likely adopt some of the same strategies pursued in his first term, such as withdrawing from multilateral institutions, cutting US funding for international organizations, reversing much of Biden’s environmental policy, and pursuing an immigration agenda that would involve increased deportations of undocumented immigrants (likely affecting employment in sectors such as construction, healthcare, agriculture and food processing).

 

The energy dossier

 

Donald Trump has made clear that US energy policy will favour fossil fuels and the scale back of renewable energy policies. These changes are considered necessary to reduce energy costs, achieve “energy dominance,” and boost the competitiveness of U.S. industries, rescinding regulations and potentially withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change.

 

Trump’s energy shift focuses on energy security rather than climate change. He claims that Biden has waged a “war on American energy,” and blames Biden for rising energy costs and inflation.

 

Trump’s campaign has consistently emphasized a “return” to fossil fuels. The US became the world’s largest oil producer in 2018, during Trump’s first term, and has remained in that spot ever since. Trump is willing to boost domestic production and refill the strategic petroleum reserve. Trump plans to end President Biden’s delays of federal drilling permits and leases on federal lands to boost oil and natural gas production. This includes removing red tape and speeding up the approval of natural gas pipelines.

 

Trump will likely focus on reversing IRA measures more closely related to climate (and therefore more polarizing) as the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund - which provides $27 billion to combat the climate crisis – and the incoming new fee on methane emissions, as to intervene after the increase in taxes on O&G assets. Trump has expressed strong opposition to several renewable energy initiatives, claiming them as unreliable and expensive. He described Biden’s electricity policies as “industry-killing, jobs-killing, pro-China and anti-American.” Nonetheless, according to several studies, Republican-led States are those which have been benefiting the most from the IRA, leading governors and citizens to judge it more positively. For this reason, it is unlikely that the Republican administration would made a “U-turn” on the path created by the IRA.

 

Liquefied natural gas (LNG): among the energy and natural resources sectors, the US LNG industry will arguably benefit the most from the elections’ outcome. A Trump victory potentially paves the way for much-needed investments to help maintain more affordable global LNG prices post-2030.

 

Electric Vehicles (EVs): EV consumer tax credits may be safe overall as a result of Elon Musk’s involvement in the new Trump administration, but regulations (e.g. domestic content thresholds) may be tweaked to advantage US manufacturers. The so-called “EV mandate” (i.e. tailpipe emissions regulation) is likely to be repealed.

 

Wind and solar: Trump has made statements during his campaign criticizing wind and solar energy as being too expensive for too little output. He is especially opposed to wind power and has promised to limit offshore wind development, which he claims harms marine life.

 

Energy efficiency standards: Previous Trump’s administration promised to delete energy efficiency standards for appliances, claiming that they result in lower product choices for consumers.

 

Nuclear power: Trump’s position on nuclear power is similar to the Biden’s administration one: support to existing nuclear reactors operating and keep developing small modular reactors.

 

Although the federal approach may shift, state and private efforts to invest in renewables are expected to continue, underscoring the complex interplay between environmental goals and economic interests.

 

Foreign policy drivers

 

Trump will almost certainly reenact his America First agenda, taking a far more transactional approach, reducing US involvement in multilateral negotiations. Trump’s foreign policy emphasizes strength at home rather than engagements abroad, based on the idea that other nations have consistently taken advantage of US multilateral security commitments and its free trade agenda. Trump will pursue a more unilateral foreign policy, less constrained by existing US security guarantees to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or Asian allies. He strongly criticized NATO while in office, reportedly telling top European officials in 2020 that “NATO is dead,” and repeatedly threatening to leave the Alliance. The new administration will insist that US allies enhance their security commitments by increasing their defence expenditures (burden sharing) as a percentage of GDP, through higher purchases of US weapons and additional payments for the US basing forces overseas. The Trump administration would also likely withdraw or end the cooperation with many international organizations, including the Paris Climate Agreement. While Trump will probably not withdraw from NATO, US financial and physical commitments to the organization will likely decline.

 

China: US-China competition is set to remain the defining element of the 21st century, as President-elect Trump's tariff plans make clear. Trump’s trade strategy aims not just at rebuilding US manufacturing industry, but also at strengthening US military capabilities and influence relative to other countries, especially China. Trump sought to confront China over what he says is a suite of economic abuses: intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, export and other subsidies, and economic espionage. He says aggressive action is required to protect American workers and to reduce the United States’ large bilateral trade deficit. Trump added that his policies would “completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas,” including electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals. As president, he started a trade war with China, applying tariffs that now average 18% to hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods. He has hinted to tripling these tariffs. Trump has said he would revoke China’s “most favoured nation” status, a trade status the United States granted China when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. He previously stated he would adopt a four-year plan to phase out imports of “essential goods” from China.

 

Israel, Gaza, and the Middle East: US regional diplomacy under a Trump presidency will be focused on preventing a wider escalation involving Iran and the Arab Gulf States and securing ceasefires in Israel’s wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the intention of facilitating normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump’s approach to the Middle East has been defined by strong support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a confrontational stance toward Iran. He points to his efforts to broker a regional peace deal and his focus on defeating Islamic terrorist groups such as the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Trump calls Israel a “cherished ally” and his administration is likely to try to revive the 2020’s Abraham Accords.

 

Russia-Ukraine: Trump claims he could quickly fix the war in Ukraine. He also says that he wouldn’t commit to approving additional US aid to Ukraine, underlining that European countries need to increase their own contributions. According to Trump, quickly ending the war in Ukraine is a US priority though emphasizing at the same time that Putin’s stated terms were not acceptable.

 

Read more:

What to expect from the next US administration

The New Energy of the US in Africa

Energy in the race to the White House