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n 2024, as in the previous year, the energy scenario was marked by strong geopolitical tensions, which have profoundly affected market dynamics and supply security. The global economy has shown resilience, growing moderately albeit unevenly, with energy demand continuing the almost uninterrupted growth trend observed over recent decades, met by a substantially stable mix in which traditional sources still played the main role. Oil consumption exceeded pre-pandemic levels, driven mainly by non-OECD countries. Supply also increased, with a significant contribution from the United States.

The gas market was characterized by an unstable balance influenced by climatic, geopolitical, and structural factors. After a mild winter and record storage levels at the end of the season, there was a subsequent recovery in demand, some uncertainties on the supply side, and tensions linked to geopolitical risks.
Installations of intermittent renewable sources (solar photovoltaic and wind) grew at a sustained pace in recent years, reaching a new global record in 2024. Biofuel production also increased, contributing to the decarbonization of the transport sector. There was also steady growth in the production of critical minerals, highlighting their strategic role in the supply chains of the new energy paradigm.

Finally, to complete the picture of the global energy system, total CO2 emissions increased in 2024, reaching a new all-time high, despite significant reduction efforts in some advanced economies.

 

WORLD

World Energy Mix and Power Capacity Mix

In 2024, global primary energy consumption reached about 15.5 Gtoe, registering growth close to 2 percent over 2023, in line with the almost uninterrupted trend observed in recent decades. The composition of the energy mix remained largely unchanged: fossil fuels continued to meet about 80 percent of demand, with stable shares for oil (30 percent), coal (28 percent) and natural gas (23 percent), confirming the trend of the past 30 years. In terms of electricity capacity, fossil fuels accounted for approximately 50 percent, nuclear for 4 percent, wind and solar for 31 percent, hydro power for 14 percent.

 

World population

In 2024, the world population exceeded 8 billion (+~70 million compared to 2023), continuing the growth trend observed over the past 15 years of about 1 percent y/y. The increase was concentrated in Africa (+2.4 percent) and the Middle East (+2.1 percent), while Europe remained almost stable (+0.04 percent).

At the level of individual countries, India, with more than 1.4 billion people, confirmed its position as the most populous country in the world, consolidating its overtaking of China, which recorded a decline of 3.3 million people.

 

GDP

In 2024, there was moderate growth in the world economy, but with large differences between geographical areas. The United States was confirmed as the main driver of the global economy, thanks to robust private consumption, support of government spending and a still dynamic labor market.

 World GDP grew by 2.8 percent, in line with the previous year. The top ten in terms of GDP continued to be led by the US, up 2.8 percent compared to last year, followed by China and Japan. Italy ranked eighth with a GDP of USD 2,129 billion, up 0.5 percent as compared to 2023.

 

OIL

Production

In 2024, production increased by 0.5 mb/d over the previous year to 97.3 mb/d (excluding biofuel and processing gains).

This increase was mainly concentrated in non-OPEC countries (+0.6 mb/d), with the United States driving the growth with an increase of 0.7 mb/d compared to 2023. OPEC saw a slight decrease in production of 0.1 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia reducing its output by about 0.5 mb/d, which was only partially offset by Iran's increase in production (+0.4 mb/d).

 

Crude Future Prices

In the futures market, Brent was down from the previous year, although it continued to remain at high levels. The trend during the year was one of gradual decline influenced mainly by traders' expectations of an increase in supply, linked to both the rebound in OPEC+ production and fears of global economic slowdown.

 

Consumption

On the demand side, 2024 saw an overall growth of 0.8 mb/d, reaching 102.8 mb/d.

The increase was mainly fueled by the sharp rise in jet fuel consumption, thanks to the continued recovery of the airline industry, and robust demand for petrochemical feedstocks (such as naphtha, LPG and ethane), particularly in China.

Global growth is driven by non-OECD economies; unlike 2023, when China alone accounted for 65 percent of overall growth, non-OECD increases in 2024 are more geographically diverse, with China, India, Latin America and the Middle East together accounting for more than 60 percent of the growth.

In terms of consumption by country, the United States tops the list with 20.4 mb/d, followed by China at 16.6 mb/d, India at 5.6 mb/d and Russia at 3.8 mb/d.

 

Export, the World top 10

In 2024, the top 5 exporters were, in descending order, Saudi Arabia (6.6 mb/d), Russia (6.0 mb/d), United States (5.0 mb/d), Canada mb/d) and Iraq (3.4 mb/d). Compared to the previous year, there was a 9.2 percent drop in Saudi Arabia’s exports 
and growth of 12.7 percent in the United States.
 

Import, the World top 10

Similar to the previous year, in 2024, China (11.0 mb/d), the United States (6.6 mb/d), India (4.8 mb/d), South Korea (2.7 mb/d) and Japan (2.3 mb/d) are reconfirmed among the top 5 importers, in descending order.

 

 

NATURAL GAS

Production

World production showed a slight increase over 2023 (+1 percent), with the most significant growth in non-OECD countries particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Russia.

In particular, China recorded 6 percent growth, and Russia +7 percent. Bucking the trend was the US with a decline of 1 percent.

The largest producers were confirmed to be the United States, with a global share of 24.8 percent, Russia (15.8 percent) and Iran (6.7 percent).

In the Production/Consumption ratio, Norway tops the list with 27.58, followed by Qatar with 3.80 and Australia with 3.68.
 

Consumption

Global gas demand increased by about 120 bcm over 2023 (+3 percent) to about 4,120 bcm with different growth trends in the different geographic areas. Driving this increase was mainly China (+29 bcm), followed by Russia (+23 bcm) and the US (+14 bcm), while demand in Europe remained more or less stable with increased demand in the industrial sector offset by lower use for power generation.

In 2024, the main consumers remained the United States (904 bcm), Russia (503 bcm) and China (400 bcm); these countries account for, respectively, 21.9 percent, 12.2 percent, 9.7 percent of world consumption.

In terms of per capita consumption ratio, Canada ranks first with 3,500 cubic meters per person, followed by Russia (3,400) and Saudi Arabia (3,000).

 

Export, the World top 10

In 2024, the top 5 exporters, in descending order, were the United States (208 bcm), Russia (159 bcm), Qatar (129 bcm), Norway (123 bcm) and Australia (111 bcm).

 

Import, the World top 10

In 2024, the top 5 importers, in order of ranking, were China (149 bcm), Japan (80 bcm), the United States (79 bcm), Germany (62 bcm) and Mexico (61 bcm). Growth in Mexico stood at 38.8 percent over the previous year.

 

 

COAL

Production

In 2023, production, stood at about 8,800 Mt. China dominated the market with a 51 percent share of global production and a trend of continuous growth (2010-23 CAGR of 2.3 percent), followed by Indonesia 0.8 Mt, India 0.8 Mt, United States 0.6 Mt and Russia 0.5 Mt.

 

Consumption

In 2024, world coal demand reached about 8,440 Mt, marking growth of 1.4 percent over 2023.

The increase in the use of this source was driven mainly by the higher consumption observed in Asia, particularly in China (approx. +2 percent) and India (approx. +3 percent), only partially offset by the reductions observed in Europe (approx. -11 percent) and North America (approx. -5 percent).
 
China remains the world's largest coal consumer, accounting for more than 55 percent of global demand, and shows a growing trend with a CAGR of 2.4 percent over the period 2010-2024.

 

 

EMISSIONS

CO2 emissions

In 2024, global energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0.8 percent, reaching a new record of almost 38 Gt. This increase was driven by emerging and developing countries, while advanced economies recorded further reductions.

China remained the world's biggest emitter, responsible for about one third of global emissions. Despite the economic slowdown and housing crisis, its emissions rose by 0.4 percent in 2024, supported by a recovery in industrial production and increased use of coal.

 

 

RENEWABLES

Solar photovoltaic

Photovoltaics were reconfirmed in 2024 as the main driver of renewable growth. Additional capacity reached about 450 GW (+32 percent vs 2023). China continued to drive installations (+278 GW), followed by the United States (+38 GW).

The total cumulative capacity at the end of 2024 was just over 1,850 GW, with China and the United States accounting for 48 percent and 9 percent of global capacity, respectively.

 

Wind

There was growth also in the wind power sector, with capacity increasing by 114 GW in 2024 compared to 2023 (+11 percent), reaching 1,133 GW at the end of the year. The onshore sector covered about 90 percent of the total capacity.

China and the United States are also confirmed as major players in wind power with respective shares of 46 percent and 13 percent. In particular, China contributed about 70 percent of the new capacity installed during the year.

 

 

POWER GENERATION

Hydro

Global hydropower generation in 2023 was about 4,200 TWh, down 2 percent from 2022, with significant growth in Europe (+14 percent) only partly offsetting declines in Asia-Pacific (-6 percent) and the Americas (-4 percent).

 

Nuclear

Nuclear generation experienced an opposite trend, globally reaching 2,740 TWh, up 2 percent from the previous year. Growth was driven by Asia-Pacific (+6 percent), particularly Japan (+50 percent) where some plants halted by the Fukushima disaster were restarted, but also by the Middle East (+47.2 percent), thanks to the entry into production of a new power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

 

 

CRITICAL MINERALS

Reserves

Cobalt and lithium are the most concentrated critical minerals in terms of reserves and production.

As concerns cobalt reserves, these were basically in line with the previous year’s values. The Democratic Republic of Congo remained the country holding the greatest concentration of the world’s critical mineral reserves (56 percent). For lithium, there was an increase of 3,300 kt compared to 2023, connected to the larger reserves in Argentina and Australia; Chile is instead the country with the highest geographical concentration of reserves (31 percent).

 

Production

In terms of production, 76 percent of cobalt is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 68 percent of rare earth elements in China, more than 60 percent of nickel in Indonesia and one third of lithium is produced in Australia.