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The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) concluded in Belém, Brazil, on November 22, 2025. Held in the gateway to the Amazon rainforest, this conference arrived at a critical juncture—ten years after the Paris Agreement and amid unprecedented geopolitical turbulence, including the United States’ withdrawal from multilateral climate cooperation under the Trump administration. Belém, however, built on the undeniable progress made over the past decade: the flattening of the emissions trajectory, reduced technology costs and unprecedented levels of global renewable energy capacity and clean energy investment. This COP, moreover, followed an extraordinary mobilization of institutions and people, alongside preparatory activities for the COP30 Climate Action Agenda. Featuring the largest Indigenous Peoples’ participation in COP history, the Presidency also promoted openness and inclusivity, and with Brazil hosting this year’s summit, many expected COP30 to have a stronger focus on agriculture and food than previous years, and were disappointed because the final text mentioned biodiversity loss, land rights and deforestation, but did not address food.

Brazil’s President Lula da Silva framed the summit as “the COP of truth,” emphasizing the need for honest assessment of progress toward the 1.5°C temperature limit established by the Paris Agreement. The final package, termed the “global mutirão”—a Portuguese word meaning “collective efforts”—attempted to address contentious issues spanning climate finance, fossil fuel transitions, and adaptation measures. Process-wise, Brazil’s leadership across the BRICS (2025), G20 (2024), and COP30 (2025) created a unique opportunity to discuss how to consolidate the transition in a way that generates economic and social benefits. The connection between the South African-led G20 and COP30 proved particularly significant. South Africa’s G20 presidency, themed “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability,” worked to provide a smooth runway on climate diplomacy into COP30 while advancing adaptation finance priorities. This coordination between multilateral forums demonstrates the potential for aligned climate action, even as geopolitical tensions constrain progress. Indeed, the outcomes revealed both the possibilities and limitations of international climate cooperation in an increasingly fragmented landscape.

 

 

Climate finance

Climate finance emerged as a central pillar of COP30’s outcomes, building on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) established at COP29 in Baku. The more ambitious aspiration established at COP29 became the focal point of the “Baku to Belém Roadmap”, that represents an important change by outlining steps to ensure different sources of finance are working jointly to drive investment at scale. The framework encompasses public and private sources, bilateral and multilateral organizations, and innovative financing mechanisms. Critically, it aims to support developing countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) addressing some of the strongest problems of climate finance, such as predictability, accessibility, and proportionality with the needs of vulnerable countries.

 

 

A landmark achievement at COP30 was the commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035, building on the 2021 Glasgow pledge to double adaptation finance, which expires in 2025. Though the final text lacked clarity on specific accountability mechanisms for who would provide these funds, it represents a political signal of growing recognition that vulnerable nations require substantially greater resources to cope with escalating climate impacts—from building flood-resilient infrastructure to expanding early warning systems and improving water storage during droughts and adjusting agriculture techniques. However, significant challenges remain in translating pledges into actual resource flows for developing countries.

 

 

From negotiation to implementation

COP30 also marked a shift in emphasis from negotiation to implementation, with Brazil’s presidency promoting bottom-up “country platforms” as a mechanism for translating global commitments into national action. These platforms articulate country-level priorities and funding requirements aligned with global climate goals, providing a framework for coordinated public-private investment. The establishment of the ‘Belém Action Mechanism’ marked a consequential outcome—the creation of the first formal “just transition mechanism” within the UN climate system. This platform is designed to coordinate assistance, share best practices, mobilize resources, and track progress in ensuring that climate action does not leave communities and workers behind, particularly those whose livelihoods depend on carbon-intensive sectors.

Countries moreover adopted 59 global indicators for tracking adaptation progress under the Global Goal on Adaptation framework, with a two-year work program established to further refine these metrics. This represents a significant step forward in addressing the longstanding challenge of measuring adaptation effectiveness across diverse contexts and geographies. The conference also established the “Global Implementation Accelerator”, a voluntary platform designed to assist countries in translating climate plans into concrete action. Working in tandem with the “Belém Mission to 1.5°C” this initiative aims to encourage higher ambition in NDCs by fostering dialogue on necessary international cooperation and investment. Information sessions are scheduled in Bonn in June 2026 and at the next COP31.
 

 

Despite being hosted in the Amazon, COP30 delivered mixed results on forest protection. The failure to include a clear deforestation roadmap in the core agreement drew some criticism. Despite this, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), Brazil’s flagship initiative, was launched during the Leaders’ Summit with the goal of raising $125 billion to provide performance-based payments to up to 74 developing countries that protect their forests. The TFFF operates through a blended finance structure, requiring $25 billion in “sponsor” capital from donor countries to catalyze private investment.  

 

 

The challenges

Notwithstanding some tangible achievements—the tripling of adaptation finance, the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, and unprecedented attention to just transitions and Indigenous rights—significant challenges remain on the path forward. Methane featured in several COP30 pledges and announcements but overall did not make major waves in Belém; the final mutirão decision did not mention fossil fuel or deforestation roadmaps. Most importantly, based on current NDCs, the world remains on track for 2.3-2.5°C of warming by 2100, far exceeding the 1.5°C target established ten years ago. In this sense COP30 process revealed “the lowest common denominator” approach, with negotiations hampered by geopolitical tensions. However, COP30 must be assessed not only on formal negotiated outcomes but also on the thousands of commitments from cities, states, businesses, and civil society. These included 14,000 local governments committing to emissions reductions, 13 nations launching country platforms, and utilities pledging nearly $150 billion for new grids and storage.

COP30 in Belém may be remembered not for resolving differences but for maintaining momentum during a period of geopolitical instability and for placing implementation at the center of the climate agenda. The next critical test will be COP31, where the world must demonstrate that the frameworks established in Brazil can deliver tangible results at the scale and speed that science demands. Following extensive discussions, COP31 will be held in Antalya (Turkey), with Australia sharing presidential responsibilities and hosting a pre-COP event in the Pacific. Brazil will continue in its role until November 2026, when leadership will transfer to Turkey and Australia. During the midpoint UNFCCC intersessional meetings in summer 2026, negotiators must advance their work to complete the metrics for evaluating the Global Goal on Adaptation and reach agreement on the functions and governance framework for the Just Transition Mechanism. Ten years after Paris promised a new era of climate cooperation, Belém offered a reminder that progress, however imperfect, remains possible—and that the collective effort to secure a livable planet continues, one COP at a time.